Modeling Analysis Predicts Increasing Impact of CKD

Results of the IMPACT CKD study presented at the International Society of Nephrology World Congress of Nephrology and published in KI Reports paint a concerning picture for the future prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

IMPACT CKD assessed the impact of CKD over a 10-year period in eight countries: the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, China, and Australia. The model predicted that 11.7% to 16.5% of individuals in those countries will have CKD by 2032, and nearly 125 million are expected to have advanced CKD—an increase of 25.0% since the model started in 2022.

If this forecast is accurate, dialysis requirements will increase by more than 75% across all eight countries, renal replacement therapy costs will rise by more than 77%, and the number of CKD-associated emergency room visits and hospitalizations will increase by more than 23%. The researchers, including Ana Flavia Moura, noted other repercussions of increasing late-stage CKD treatment, such as lost economic productivity, caregiver absenteeism, and negative impacts to the environment.

The patient-level simulation model by AstraZeneca uses extensive validation and calibration to accurately represent known population data. The model maps the CKD pathway from primary care to end-of-life care and lays out the burden of CKD from health, socioeconomic, and environmental perspectives. The modeling analysis is part of AstraZeneca’s Accelerating Change Together for CKD initiative, which strives to improve understanding and outcomes of CKD worldwide. As part of that initiative, along with the Global Patient Alliance for Kidney Health, the drug maker has launched the Make the Change for Kidney Health campaign to make kidney health an urgent priority worldwide.

Source: KI Reports