Autism Rates Reach New High in U.S. Children: Here’s What It Really Means

On this episode of Noise Filter, MarkAlain Dery, DO, MPH, FACOI, and co-host and producer David Roston break down a major new CDC report revealing that 1 in 31 U.S. 8-year-olds are now diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder – marking an appreciable increase from previous years. But is autism truly on the rise? In this episode, the hosts explore how expanded definitions, improved screening, and increased access drive rates upward, not a sudden surge in actual cases. The duo also tackles lingering vaccine myths, and emphasizes that vaccines do not cause autism.

Transcript:

Dr. MarkAlain Dery: Welcome to Noise Filter show. Our top story today is autism rates amongst American children have reached a new high, according to a major report released today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. So, let’s break down what this means, why it’s happening, and what’s next for families and the medical community. But first, let’s look at the numbers. The CDC now estimates that 1 in 31 8-year-old children in the United States have been diagnosed with the autism spectrum disorder, or what we call the ASD. That’s up from 1 in 36 just two years ago, and that’s a dramatic increase from 1 in 50 back in the year of 2000. This means that 3% of American children are now identified as being on the autism spectrum.

So Dave, before you jump in, let me just say, why do we think that rates are rising? So what’s behind the steady climb? Well, experts say the main drivers are better awareness, improved screening and broader diagnostic criteria. And over the past decade, the definition of autism has expanded. And conditions like Asperger’s are now included under that umbrella. Pediatricians in schools are more proactive in identifying children who may need support and more families, especially historically underserved communities, are getting access to evaluations and services. Dave, any thoughts?

David Roston:  Well, does that mean that it’s actually going up, or does that mean that we are just changing the definition and changing who is being diagnosed?

MarkAlain Dery: So that of course is a brilliant question, and that’s probably the $64,000 question. It’s likely that because we are expanding the definition and we’re doing a much better job looking for it, that we’re finding more of it. It could be that children in the past may have been thought of as being difficult children or kind of unruly or unresponsive, or there are probably many other descriptors that children may have been categorized as. But I think as we have become better at identifying, we’ve become more alert to it. I think we are going to see the numbers go up, and I think that’s what we’re seeing. And I’m a little concerned, although I’m sure we’re going to get to it here in this story, that come September, according to RFK Jr., we’re supposed to have some understanding of what causes autism. Although I am not 100% sure what we’re going to get at there, but yeah, so I think the answer to your question is we’re more aware of it.

David Roston: Right. I mean, it goes back to the detection of autism and the link that historically between autism and vaccine skeptics is like, oh, once vaccines became more prevalent, that autism, people started to see all this autism amongst the population, but it was always there. It’s just now that there was a way to analyze and to diagnose it happening simultaneously with the introductions of max vaccines. So, there’s this kind of mis-

MarkAlain Dery: Well, it’s a false premise. This goes back to something that we used to talk about when we were still on air was how our brains lie to us. We think we see something. The classic story I tell is Paul Offit, he’s a very famous vaccinologist and he does a lot of vaccine work. He’s the guy, if there’s something about autism and vaccines, he’s usually the guy that is on the news talking about it. He tells this great story about how he was doing his vaccine clinic. It was a Saturday. Kids were doing their catch-up vaccines. His wife is a nurse, she’s preparing the vaccines, and he’s delivering the vaccines. He’s getting ready to get a kid vaccinated. The kid sits on mom’s lap, and right before he delivers that vaccine, the kid has a seizure. First time ever seizure, never got the vaccine, had the seizure. At that point, the kid was taken in the hospital, he was taken care of and all was good. The question that he asks is what would’ve happened had he given that vaccine one minute earlier?

You would’ve never peeled away from that mom’s mind that that vaccine caused that seizure, and we would’ve had a serious seizure or a vaccine denier or a skeptic at that point. Our brains do lie to us. And I think that goes to the point that you were just making, that there are folks that will make this cause-and-effect link that doesn’t necessarily exist there. But boy, it’s so hard to change that in people’s minds once they see that link.

David Roston: Right. And now coming to what this report now from the CDC, that there’s more children being diagnosed with autism, now it’s feeling, oh, there’s more vaccines. There’s maybe more reason to be skeptical as COVID vaccines [were] introduced four years ago, and now these kids are being diagnosed, but it’s like, wait a minute, changing the diagnostic criteria, and we’re doing a better job at detecting this in general and serving more underserved populations who might not have had this type of care, healthcare in the past. But there’s this deflation of data here amongst vaccine skeptics who might see this as a correlation.

MarkAlain Dery: 100%. So let me tell you who’s affected. So, the report actually highlighted some important disparities. Boys are still more, three times as likely as girls to be diagnosed with autism. Rates are also higher amongst Asian, Black, Hispanic, and American Indian or Alaska native children compared to white children, reflecting both progress and reaching more communities, as you were just saying, David, and ongoing gaps in access to care. In some areas, especially those with lower incomes or greater social vulnerability, prevalence is even higher. So, getting into what we were talking about a moment ago in terms of data and debate, there’s been super renewed debate about what’s causing the rise. While some public figures continue to suggest environmental toxins or vaccines are to blame, the scientific consensus remains clear. Let me repeat that sentence again. The scientific consensus remains clear. Vaccines do not cause autism, and up to 90% of autism risk is linked to genetics.

And I think that’s another thing that’s hard for people to hear. Let’s just put a pin on that real quickly. So the CDC and other experts emphasize that the increase is largely due to better detection and not a sudden urge in new cases. And before I toss to you, David, let me just repeat that part about genetics. I think, and listen, I’m not a parent, I don’t have children, although I am empathetic and maybe even sometimes too empathetic. But I can understand a parent who loves their children, who went through the process of pregnancy and delivery and is given everything that they can to bring up a child, and then all of a sudden that child is autistic and maybe doesn’t fit in with society or what have you. And I can see people thinking that it was something that caused it, when really, as we just heard, it’s all genetics. And I think that people just don’t want to admit that it was their genes that potentially caused something to their child. So that’s something I think about pretty often.

David Roston: It’s a difficult pill to swallow when you can’t see the answer right in front of you that’s not tangible. Similar to this skepticism around just where that COVID even exists, and a lot of denial around the virus when it came on to the world stage because you can’t see it. So, it was like, oh, it doesn’t exist. This is a made up virus. And there was a lot of conspiracy theories that were brought up around that time. And I think it’s just because you cannot see the answer right in front of you, as you can see a car crash or not wearing a seatbelt, leading to deaths, wearing a seatbelt prevents deaths. So, I think it’s really difficult to show that in a clear cut manner.

MarkAlain Dery: Yeah, 100%. And as we’ve talked about before, as we start to wrap up this segment, when I was in Sierra Leone working for WHO for the Ebola epidemic, where in Sierra Leone it’s 80% of individuals who can’t read. Literacy rate is quite high, and therefore the understanding of science is not there. And so, because of that, our initial health communications really centered on the fact that Ebola is real. People just didn’t believe in it because they had just never seen something like that. But we will continue to follow this story. We think this is important for you guys to know. And thank you for tuning into Noise Filter. Subscribe and like this video.

David Roston:  Thank you.