Novel Tool is Effective at Predicting the Onset of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer Dementia

A new model called the Florey Dementia Index (FDI) can accurately predict the age at onset of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer dementia (AD). The findings appeared today in JAMA Network Open.

In this prognostic study, researchers used data from two aging and dementia cohort studies—the Australian Imaging, Biomarker and Lifestyle (AIBL) study and the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI)—to validate the (FDI), which is characterized as a tool used to predict the age at onset of MCI and AD in older adults. Overall, the researchers analyzed data from 1,665 AIBL participants, 2,029 ADNI participants, and 93 A4 participants from October 2004, to March 1, 2023. The main end point of interest was defined as predicted age of onset compared with clinically observed age at onset.

Following analysis, the FDI achieved robust results with a  mean absolute errors of 2.78 (95% CI, 2.63-2.93) years for predicting MCI onset and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.32-1.65) years for predicting AD onset. Moreover, a simulated trial with 93 A4 participants (48 [51.6%] female; mean [SD] age at baseline, 73.4 [5.1] years) showed that the FDI achieved mean absolute errors of 1.57 (95% CI, 1.41-1.71) years for predicting MCI onset and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.53-0.88) years for predicting AD onset.

“This prognostic study confirms that the FDI model can be used to predict the age at onset for both MCI and AD, a significant challenge that few existing models can achieve. The promising results achieved in the present study support the potential clinical use of the FDI model so that timely diagnostics, treatment, and care plans for individuals at risk can be arranged,” the researchers concluded.