Although lung cancer incidence is declining and five-year survival rates are increasing, lung cancer remains the top cause of cancer mortality in the United States, causing nearly 2.5 times more deaths than colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer, according to the 2025 Cancer Statistics report from the American Cancer Society.
The American Cancer Society reported an annual decline of 2.2% in lung cancer incidence from 2012 to 2021, with the five-year survival rate for lung cancer increasing over the decades, rising from 15% in 1995-1997 to 27% in 2014-2020.
However, despite declines in incidence and improvements in survival, the new report projects that 226,650 new cases of lung cancer and 124,730 deaths from lung cancer will occur in 2025. These lung cancer cases represent 11.1% of this year’s 2,041,910 projected new cancer cases, with lung cancer deaths representing 20.2% of this year’s 618,120 estimated cancer deaths in the United States.
Among the estimated lung cancer deaths, the American Cancer Society estimates that around 85% (106,150) of lung cancer deaths this year “will be caused by cigarette smoking directly, with an additional 3500 caused by second-hand smoke.” The authors of the Cancer Statistics report, led by Rebecca L. Siegel, MPH, of the American Cancer Society, explained that while smoking patterns have changed, there is still much work to be done.
“Despite steep declines in cigarette smoking prevalence, from 42% in 1965 to 12% in 2022, smoking continues to be the leading cause of preventable death in the United States, accounting for almost 500 cancer deaths each day in 2025, most from lung cancer,” Siegel and colleagues wrote.
Beyond cigarette smoking, the report estimates that 15,100 lung cancer deaths in 2025 will be caused by a combination of other combustible tobacco products, such as cigar or pipe smoking, radon, occupational exposures, air pollution, and other environmental exposures. In addition, Siegel and colleagues noted that there is a “growing concern that e-cigarettes and vaping may contribute to this burden in the future given their carcinogenic potential and wide popularity.”
Officials from the American Cancer Society also emphasized that “notably, lung cancer incidence in women surpassed that in men among people younger than 65 years in 2021,” with 15.7 cases per 100,000 women, compared with 15.4 per 100,000 men (relative risk, 0.98; P=.03). In addition, lung cancer incidence has declined by 3% per year in men from 2012 to 2021 and by 1.4% per year in women.
“The downturn began later and remains slower in women than in men because women took up cigarette smoking in large numbers later and were also slower to quit, including upticks in smoking prevalence in some generations born after 1965,” Siegel and colleagues wrote.
In 2025, lung cancer is estimated to represent 11% of all new cancer cases in men and 12% of all new cancer cases in women.
“These patterns harken back to the pretobacco epidemic era, when the cancer burden was higher in women than in men, and may be a bellwether for the future cancer landscape,” Siegel and colleagues wrote.
Lung cancer is projected to be the top cause of cancer mortality in 2025 among both men and women, accounting for 20% of 2025 estimated cancer deaths in men and 21% in women.
“Despite decades of decline, lung cancer continues to dwarf other cancers in the number of deaths, causing more deaths in 2022 than colorectal, breast, and prostate cancers combined,” Siegel and colleagues wrote. “The lung cancer death rate has dropped by 61% from the peak in 1990 among men and by 38% from the peak in 2002 among women, consistent with the later downturn in incidence.”
The investigators noted that a recent study found that “mortality declines accelerated for both smoking-related and smoking-unrelated lung cancer but are slower for the latter because they are not influenced by reductions in incidence,” adding that the pace of decline has accelerated since 2013-2014 “because of earlier detection and treatment advances that have extended survival.”
The report highlighted the importance of screening for lung cancer, as low-dose computed tomography screening “reduces the odds of lung cancer mortality by 16%–24% among high-risk individuals and is associated with a substantial survival advantage.”
“The potential for reducing the mortality burden is further increased by updated American Cancer Society guidelines that expanded screening eligibility to an additional 5 million people by eliminating cessation time among former smokers because of protracted excess risk,” Siegel and colleagues wrote. “Nevertheless, lung cancer screening prevalence remains low, ranging from one of 10 eligible adults in most Western states to three of 10 in the Northeast, and most cases (43%) are diagnosed at a distant stage.”
The American Cancer Society annually estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States by compiling incidence data from central cancer registries and mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics.
To learn more, view the full report here.
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